https://doi.org/10.1051/epjpv/2023006
Regular Article
Benchmark of eight commercial solutions for deterministic intra-day solar forecast
1
ENGIE Laborelec, Solar Lab, Rue de Rhode 125, 1630 Linkebeek, Belgium
2
ENGIE Green, 215 rue Samuel Morse, 34000 Montpellier, France
* e-mail: jonathan.lehmann@engie.com
Received:
1
July
2022
Received in final form:
10
January
2023
Accepted:
20
January
2023
Published online: 21 March 2023
Continuous increase of the production of photovoltaic energy requires precise forecasting to ensure grid stability. This paper presents a detailed benchmark of eight commercial forecasting solutions for intra-day solar forecasts. The comparison was carried out on a period of six months, from November to May 2021, on seven different PV plants located in different countries of the northern hemisphere. Performance evaluation metrics MAE, RMSE and MBE are used in order to analyze the forecasting precision. It is shown that forecasting solar power remains challenging, as shown by the important dispersion between the actors that we have observed.
Key words: Forecasting / satellite / benchmark / intra-day / forecast accuracy / solar power
© J. Lehmann et al., Published by EDP Sciences, 2023
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
